UofL Researchers Explore How Changing Climate and Rural Land Systems Impact Migration
In addressing the implications of climate change, understanding why and how people migrate, along with the resulting impacts on both their lives and the environment is crucial.
Professor Dr. Andrea Gaughan and Associate Professor Dr. Forrest Stevens, researchers in the Department of Geographic and Environmental Sciences, are shedding light on this complex issue through a study and recently published paper led by Colorado State University on rural-to-rural migration. Their work recently published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Sustainability, aims to inform policies that help communities adapt to environmental changes and anticipates how land use and those changes interact.
The Research Focus
Most people think of migration as a movement from rural areas to big cities, or across international borders. However, Dr. Gaughan and Dr. Stevens are studying a less obvious but equally important type of migration: rural-to-rural migration. This is when people move from one rural area to another, often in response to slower, more gradual changes in the environment, like declining rainfall or soil quality.
Dr. Stevens explains, "Our research focuses on understanding how these slow-onset environmental changes, like small declining rainfall or changes in its timing of over several years, can lead people to move to new areas. These moves are often not immediate but are instead cumulative decisions that happen after years of coping with difficult conditions."
This research, funded by an NSF grant, is particularly important in low- and middle-income countries, where many people rely heavily on the land for their livelihoods. Dr. Gaughan points out, "In these regions, subtle changes in climate can have a big impact on people's lives. For instance, a reduction in rainfall over time might make farming or grazing unsustainable, pushing families to seek better opportunities elsewhere."
Using Technology to Understand Migration Patterns
One of the unique aspects of this study is how it combines different types of data to understand migration patterns. Dr. Gaughan and Dr. Stevens use geospatial tools to map and measure how the environment and human decisions interact and, in this study, an agent-based simulation model was developed to better understand migration decisions as they relate to structural (e.g. economic, political) and individual choices. Dr. Gaughan explains, "As geographers, we are interested in capturing the land use signals on the ground using satellite imagery and data collected directly from the field. The agent-based Migration Land Systems Model presented in this study is a first step to illustrating how we can take different types of data on environmental changes and couple them with social behaviors to explore human-environment changes.”
Dr. Stevens adds, "This approach helps us distinguish between short-term changes, like a bad year for crops, and long-term trends, such as ongoing droughts and their potential interactions with migration. Understanding these different time scales is key to predicting when and where people might move in the future."
This Research Could Have Positive Impacts for Vulnerable Communities
Climate change is expected to disproportionately impact low- and middle-income countries, and anticipating and managing future land use change will be key to adaptation, the paper states. Policy options could include giving rural people better tools to adapt in place to climate and environmental changes, so migration becomes less necessary, or better land-use planning in receiving areas.
The research supported by Dr. Gaughan and Dr. Stevens has the potential to make a significant impact on vulnerable communities. By understanding how and why people move, their work can help policymakers develop strategies to support these populations more effectively.
Dr. Stevens emphasizes, "Not all households have the same ability to adapt to climate change. Our research aims to provide insights into the various factors that influence migration decisions, from household resources to regional policies. By understanding these factors, we can help create policies that support the most vulnerable communities."
Dr. Gaughan agrees, noting, "In low- and middle-income countries, where people are often more directly affected by environmental changes, it's crucial to anticipate how these changes will drive migration. By doing so, we can better manage land use and support sustainable development."
Inspiring the Next Generation of Geographers
For students interested in geography and climate change, this research offers a glimpse into the real-world impact of studying the interactions between people and the environment.
Dr. Gaughan encourages students to consider the power of geospatial tools in addressing these challenges. "As geographers, we have the tools to map and measure these changes, providing critical information that can lead to better policies and practices."
Dr. Stevens adds, "Understanding how migration affects the environment and vice versa is essential for creating sustainable solutions. Our work highlights the importance of looking at both the big picture and the local details, something that future geographers can continue to explore."
By examining the complex relationship between migration and the environment, Dr. Gaughan and Dr. Stevens are helping pave the way for policies that not only address climate change but also improve the lives of those most affected by it.
For students passionate about making a difference, their work serves as a powerful reminder of the impact that geographical research can have on the world.
This article contains content in part from Colorado State University’s press release. Read the press release from Colorado State University here.
