COVID-19 Projections in Jefferson County, Kentucky

Introduction

A team of UofL SPHIS researchers, led by Dr. Seyed Karimi, is projecting trends in COVID-19 cases in Jefferson County, KY using a model of epidemic dynamics called the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model. The model allows for measuring the effect of a public health policy intervention to contain an infection.

Check back frequently for updates. In addition to improving the precision of the current projections with new data, the team is working on measuring changes in the transmission of the disease over time. They are also assessing the impact of different  reopening scenarios on the trends of hospitalization and deaths.


Projecting COVID-19 Deaths and Hospitalizations for Region 4 of the Kentucky Regional Hospital Preparedness Program (HPP) Coalition from August 18 to October 17, 2020

Sept. 2, 2020

Graph from CEHD report 9-2-2020 showing the rate of mask-wearing in KY Region 4 from the NY Times

Dr. Karimi and his colleagues produced this report as part of the team’s collaboration with the Kentucky's Office of Health Data and Analytics, based in the Cabinet for Health and Family Services, and the Kentucky Regional Hospital Preparedness Program (HPP) Coalition. The HPP Region IV consists of ten counties: Allen, Barren, Butler, Edmonson, Hart, Logan, Metcalfe, Monroe, Simpson, and Warren. Warren County includes the city of Bowling Green, the third largest city in Kentucky. The analysis looked out how different rates of mobility and mask-wearing among Region IV residents would affect hospitalizations and deaths. The mask-wearing rate in the region is significantly lower and mobility rates are noticeably higher than those in Jefferson County, for which this research group predicted COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths previously. Also, COVID-19 hospitalizations in this region have been increasing from the beginning of the pandemic. Researchers found that increasing mask wearing is projected to prevent excess hospitalizations and deaths; however, the estimated benefits of increasing mask wearing will be attenuated if mobility increases at high rates. They conclude that mask wearing cannot/will not be able to mitigate high mobility rates.

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Projecting the COVID-19 Deaths and Hospitalizations for Jefferson County, Kentucky from July 16 to September 15, 2020

July 31, 2020

Figure S1.2_H shows Active Hospitalizations

The focus of this report is showing the importance of mask-wearing in managing the number of hospitalizations and preventing additional deaths. Researchers examined moderate and high increases in the mask-wearing rates following the July 10 mask order, the possibility of the order’s reversal, and increases in mobility with the reopening of schools and universities.

Figure S1.2_H (shown left) illustrates the scenario with the greatest compliance with preventive strategies: mask-wearing compliance (i.e., local mask order in effect) and no significant change in mobility (i.e., schools remain closed). This scenario projects that by mid-September, Jefferson County would have approximately 70 active hospitalizations and 270 total deaths. These projections are lower than the study’s status quo scenario (no change in mask-wearing or mobility rates), which shows the number of active hospitalizations increasing to approximately 260 by mid-September.

If the mask order is reversed after a moderate increase in mask-wearing rate and school opening results in a high increase mobility, the numbers of active hospitalizations and total deaths can increase to approximately 350 and 400, respectively, by mid-September. Projections under this scenario are depicted in Figure S6.1_H in the report.

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Projecting the COVID-19 Weekly Hospitalizations and Deaths for Jefferson County, Kentucky

May 13, 2020

Figure 2 Page 14 (5-12-20) More precise data has informed a second modeling study produced by the UofL School of Public Health and Information Sciences and the Louisville Metro Department of Public Health & Wellness. The updated projections show a current plateau in hospitalizations, along with a slight decrease in death rates and a significant decrease in hospitalizations by the end of August,compared to the first report published a couple of weeks ago.

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Projecting the COVID-19 Weekly Deaths, Infections, and Hospitalizations for Jefferson County, Kentucky

April 23, 2020

Projected numbers of total deaths by week under different social distancing scenarios. The status quo in this figure assumes the social distancing measures became effective on March 31 and decreased transmission by 65% (Figure 2.6 in the report). A new modeling study by the UofL School of Public Health and Information Sciences and the Louisville Metro Department of Public Health & Wellness indicates that stringent social distancing measures the city put in place in March have significantly slowed the spread of COVID-19 in the city.

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Research Team

Seyed Karimi, PhD, Assistant Professor, Department of Health Management & System Sciences; Health Economist, Louisville Metro Department of Public Health & Wellness; 

Natalie DuPre, ScD, Assistant Professor, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health

W. Paul McKinney, MD, Professor and Associate Dean, Department of Health Promotion and Behaviorial Sciences

Bert Little, PhD, Professor, Department of Health Management & System Sciences

Riten Mitra, PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics 

Naiya Patel, MPH, PhD student, Department of Health Management & Systems Sciences

Hamid Zarei, PhD Student, Department of Health Management & System Sciences

Rameez Ul Hassan, MD, PhD Student, Department of Health Management & System Sciences

YuTing Chen, MPH, MS, Center for Health Equity, Louisville Metro Department of Public Health & Wellness

Sarah Moyer, MD, MPH, Director, Louisville Metro Department of Public Health & Wellness; Assistant Professor, Department of Health Management & System Sciences


Contact Information 
Media inquiries — Julie Heflin, julie.heflin@louisville.edu502-852-7987
Questions about the study methods or results — Dr. Seyed Karimin, Seyed.Karimi@louisville.edu

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