COVID-19 Projections in Jefferson County, Kentucky

Introduction

A team of UofL SPHIS researchers, led by Dr. Seyed Karimi, is projecting trends in COVID-19 cases in Jefferson County, KY using a model of epidemic dynamics called the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model. The model allows for measuring the effect of a public health policy intervention to contain an infection.

Check back frequently for updates. In addition to improving the precision of the current projections with new data, the team is working on measuring changes in the transmission of the disease over time. They are also assessing the impact of different  reopening scenarios on the trends of hospitalization and deaths.


Projecting the COVID-19 Weekly Hospitalizations and Deaths for Jefferson County, Kentucky

May 13, 2020

Figure 2 Page 14 (5-12-20) More precise data has informed a second modeling study produced by the UofL School of Public Health and Information Sciences and the Louisville Metro Department of Public Health & Wellness. The updated projections show a current plateau in hospitalizations, along with a slight decrease in death rates and a significant decrease in hospitalizations by the end of August,compared to the first report published a couple of weeks ago.

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Projecting the COVID-19 Weekly Deaths, Infections, and Hospitalizations for Jefferson County, Kentucky

April 23, 2020

Projected numbers of total deaths by week under different social distancing scenarios. The status quo in this figure assumes the social distancing measures became effective on March 31 and decreased transmission by 65% (Figure 2.6 in the report). A new modeling study by the UofL School of Public Health and Information Sciences and the Louisville Metro Department of Public Health & Wellness indicates that stringent social distancing measures the city put in place in March have significantly slowed the spread of COVID-19 in the city.

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Research Team

Seyed Karimi, PhD, Assistant Professor, Department of Health Management & System Sciences; Health Economist, Louisville Metro Department of Public Health & Wellness; 

Natalie DuPre, ScD, Assistant Professor, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health

W. Paul McKinney, MD, Professor and Associate Dean, Department of Health Promotion and Behaviorial Sciences

Bert Little, PhD, Professor, Department of Health Management & System Sciences

Naiya Patel, MPH, PhD student, Department of Health Management & Systems Sciences

Sarah Moyer, MD, MPH, Director, Louisville Metro Department of Public Health & Wellness; Assistant Professor, Department of Health Management & System Sciences


Contact Information 
Media inquiries — Julie Heflin, julie.heflin@louisville.edu502-852-7987
Questions about the study methods or results — Dr. Seyed Karimin, Seyed.Karimi@louisville.edu

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