Dr. Julien Arino, Professor, 2021-2024 Faculty of Science Research Chair at University of Manitoba, and member of the Canadian COVID-19 Mathematical Modelling will be presenting the University of Louisville Department of Mathematics Colloquium tomorrow, Friday, November 5 from 3:30 - 4:30 pm. The talk is geared towards a broad audience and will be presented both in person in Natural Sciences Building Room 128 on the Belknap Campus and virtually via MS Teams. Refreshments will precede the talk. The title and abstract can be found below and on our website.
Speaker: Dr. Julien Arino, University of Manitoba
Title: Considerations on the spatial and temporal spread of infectious pathogens in the COVID-19 era
Abstract: The spatial and temporal spread of infectious diseases has been documented for millenia and the mechanisms leading to this spatialisation are, for the most part, well identified. However, while the "ingredients" are known, the way they interact to give rise to actual spread events remains elusive. If this needed illustrating, the ongoing COVID-19 crisis is providing a perfect example. The initial wave of spread between country-level jurisdictions was relatively well predicted. However, when focusing on a finer scale, the situation is murkier. Some relatively similar local jurisdictions saw very different outcomes; altogether, there were a myriad of spread profiles. This highlights the need to better understand the processes involved in the spatio-temporal spread of infections, in particular in the perspective of deriving or improving methods to slow or interrupt this spread. In this talk, I will focus on one critical cog: case importations. I will present data documenting the process in the context of COVID-19 as well as models that were considered to quantify the risk that importations take place. I will also discuss the role and efficacy of two types of importation control measures: travel interruptions and quarantine.